Early signals of change are now being tracked systematically

By 2035, a major change is rarely a complete surprise.

This does not mean that humanity has learned to predict events accurately. It has learned to notice weak signals from which strong consequences can potentially grow.

An unusual scientific publication, an experiment by a small town, a new habit among young people, a shift in language, a niche technology, an unusual user request — all of these can be early signals.

By 2026, management systems are already moving toward continuous monitoring. The spatial development strategy provides for a digital platform that uses a wide range of statistical and departmental data to monitor the dynamics of territories. At the same time, VTsIOM looks at the future through trends, public expectations, and emerging scenarios.

But an early signal is different from an indicator. It is often still too small to appear in official statistics.

This is why a multi-level system has emerged. First, signals were collected from science, technology, culture, and social practices. Then each one received context: how new it is, where it appeared, and what change it could trigger. After that, signals were combined into trends and counter-trends. Finally, they were linked to scenarios: if the signal strengthens, which future becomes more likely?

Erroneous signals were not deleted without a trace. Their evaluation history made it possible to understand why society or experts overestimated a phenomenon.

What we did

We introduced the practice of searching for and discussing early signals within Futurating materials, linking them to areas of the future and specific postulates.

We began to regularly look not only at the popularity of an idea, but also at its novelty, connections, and potential consequences. This made it possible to notice the future when it still looks like a small deviation from the familiar picture.